Continuity
Preserve the history behind the duty. Calendar boundaries should not silently reset the modelled state.
MAFRM began with a practical concern: understanding a pilot’s fatigue exposure requires more than checking one duty against a rigid scheduling boundary.
The timing of work matters. So does the duty before it, the opportunity to sleep, the commute and the transition into the next shift. Practical experience in commercial aviation prompted a closer look at how these factors can be evaluated together.
MAFRM—Magnussen Aviation Fatigue Risk Model—is an Australian-developed initiative associated with Magnussen Group. Its purpose is to make roster patterns, modelling assumptions and alternative scenarios easier to examine and explain.
MAFRM combines operational perspective with a transparent development approach: make assumptions visible, keep predictions separate from observations and evaluate performance against independent evidence.
Preserve the history behind the duty. Calendar boundaries should not silently reset the modelled state.
Retain the source, configuration and assumptions that explain how a result was produced.
Keep observations separate from predictions. Test the model against evidence it has not already used for calibration.
Matthew is a Perth-based commercial pilot with experience across airline, aeromedical and remote aviation operations, including command and senior operational roles.
He holds a Bachelor of Finance from Curtin University. MAFRM draws on his operational perspective, analytical approach and long-standing interest in making fatigue risk easier to examine and explain.
Matthew leads MAFRM’s operational framing and product direction. Its evaluation program is designed to incorporate appropriate scientific, research and technical expertise.
Developing a roster proposal, investigating an operational pattern or planning fatigue research? Let’s explore where MAFRM could contribute.